1M Verizon iPhones may be sold in the first week of sales

Today Mike Abramsky, who is an analyst from investment firm RBC Capital Markets, released a note to investors, where he said that Apple and Verizon will sell more than 1 million iPhones in a week after its launch. He also forecasted that in the first quarter of device availability both companies will sell approximately from 3 to 4 million handsets.

He also took available inventory and estimated pre-order numbers and found out that Apple, Best Buy and Verizon may stock out completely as soon as in the first week after the launch of the device. The analyst believes that Apple has 1-1,5 million units for the launch in its channel inventory.

If Apple will activate from 3 to 4 million iPhones in the first sales quarter, that will still be less than 5 million activations, which were made by AT&T in the first quarter of iPhone 4 availability between July and September of last year.

Mike Abramsky, however, is assured that Verizon will make a less number of activations because of few reasons:

• Verizon iPhone 4 is the same as the first iPhone 4 in terms of functionality;
• Verizon doesn't offer such aggressive upgrade options as AT&T;
• Verizon also sells Android-based smartphones and has many clients who bought one of them and are under a two-year contract;
• The only data plan that is available for Verizon iPhone 4 users costs 30$/month, while the cheapest one at AT&T is only 15$/month;
• Some users will prefer to wait and get iPhone 5 when it’ll become available;
• AT&T 's first sales quarter was 13 weeks long, while Verizon will have only 7 weeks of sales.

The analyst also expects that from 9 to 10 million Verizon iPhones will be sold in calendar year 2011, though he called that assumption conservative. This allows him to suggest that in 2011 the number of Verizon's customers who have smartphone will rise from 26% to 40%.

In regard to Android, the analyst expects in 2011 40% of Verizon smartphone sales will be represented by iPhone and 37% - by Android-based smartphones.

In calendar year 2011 Apple is also expected to sell 75 million iPhones worldwide, which is 58% year over year growth. If Verizon will sell from 9 to 10 million iPhones in 2011, this will result in 12-13% of global sales.

Besides that RBC Capital Markets also reconsidered its 12-month price target for Apple stock from $395 to $425. In 2011 Apple's revenue will be $99 billion, and EPS will be $23.30.

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